Archived - Not Current !!
Advisory in effect Mar 17 for Rapid Creek, CO

Issued on:Sat, Mar 15, 2023 at 4:30 PM

Considerable at all Elevations

You can trigger an avalanche where you find more than about 10 inches of new and wind-drifted snow. Whatch for and avoid areas where snow is drifted like on steep slopes below ridgelines, steep rollovers, and the sides of gullies. Shooting cracks and collapsing are signs of instability and are cues to move to slopes less than about 35 degrees.

Avalanche Problems 1:
Storm Slab
All Aspects and Elevations
Likely
Small to Large

Storm Slab avalanches release naturally during snow storms and can be triggered for a few days after a storm ends. They often release at or below the trigger point, and are widespread throughout the terrain. Avoid them by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Central Mountains Regional Discussion

A warm and wet incoming storm could deposit will ramp up Wednesday evening and into Thursday. The model agreeance is poor at this time but the favored areas surrounding Schofield Pass, Crested Butte, and Grand Mesa could see at least a foot of snow. This system is very dynamic and accurate snow totals are difficult to predict.

The new snow is coming in with only a little wind but it will be enough to build drifts in some places. With the lingering storm slab from earlier in the week, avalanches in the new snow could grow large quickly. Multiple parties had close calls in the last few days with the lingering storm slab, so now is a good time to step back from the steeper terrain and carefully assess how the snowpack is going to react to the new load.

Pay attention to slab development, like shooting cracks and increased stiffness in the surface snow as the day progresses. New snow falls on various old surfaces with some cold snow on northerly aspects, melt-freeze crusts on southerly aspects, and a mixed bag on the fringes. The use of small test slopes and shovel tilt/shear tests are also great ways to see how well-bonded the new snow is.

The new snow will do little to change the danger on Wednesday throughout the Sawatch, the Frying Pan Wilderness, and the Elk Mountains. The greater risk is the lingering persistent weak layers within the snowpack. This being said, new snow combined with low to moderate wind speeds could build drifts on steeper slopes on the lee aspects. Though slides within the new snow can be small, they could potentially cause failures in the deeper layers, stepping down and creating a larger and more dangerous avalanche. An unusual avalanche cycle around Ashcroft during the first week of March highlights that the Persistent Slab avalanche problem is still present and dangerous throughout most of the Central Mountains.

Weather Discussion

The surface cold front associated with the atmospheric river pumping moisture into the Southern Mountains is along the Continental Divide early this morning. Expect continued snow throughout the day, favoring areas near Wolf Creek Pass south into Cumbres and La Manga Passes and in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Favored areas in the Central Mountains will see another 3 to 6 inches of snow throughout the day, and areas in the Northern Mountains are already starting to dry up as subsidence is settling in behind the existing system. Temperatures will be in the tens to low twenties today as cold air filters in behind the front. 

Snow showers continue in the Southern Mountains overnight with higher accumulations around Wolf Creek pass and areas to the south. temperatures will be in the negative numbers in the Northern and Central Mountains and in the single digits to low teens in the Southern Mountains. 

A ridge of high pressure builds over the Four Corners on Friday. Areas in the Northern and central Mountains will see some sun, but areas in the Southern Mountains remain mostly cloudy. A shortwave trough sweeps through the Southern Mountains Friday afternoon, bringing another quick round of snow showers. Additional accumulations will be in the 1 to 3-inch range. Orographic snow showers continue in the Southern Mountains through Saturday. 

Another atmospheric river impacts the west coast on Monday. We will get another round of snowfall from this disturbance mid-week.